- From controlling 20% of the world energy market in 2021, it will have only 13% in 2030.
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| Russia cuts until further notice the gas supply in the 'Nord Stream 1' |
The IEA warns Russia: it will lose its leadership as an energy exporter
Russia is going to lose its position as a world leader in energy exports in the coming years due to the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine, in particular, due to the reduction in gas sales to Europe, its traditional market, according to the International Energy Agency. Energy (IEA).
In its annual global outlook report released Thursday, the IEA reckons Russia's fossil fuel exports will never return to 2021 levels, and that's despite its reorientation to Asian markets.
In global terms, the IEA calculates that, from having represented 20% of international energy exchanges last year, its weight will drop to 13% in 2030 with the latest policies put in place after the outbreak of the conflict.
Much of the space that Russia is going to give up in fossil fuel sales will be occupied by the United States and the Middle East, the document indicates.
The change is even more spectacular if gas is taken in isolation since from having a 30% share of world exports in 2021 it will drop to 15% at the beginning of the next decade.
The reason in the first place is the willingness of European countries to gradually do without gas and in particular Russian gas.
Russian energy will have a marginal weight in the EU
The authors of the report anticipate that the demand for natural gas imports in the European Union will increase from 370,000 million cubic meters in 2021 to 230,000 million per year by 2030, to 140,000 million by 2035 and 40,000 by 2050.
And those from Russia could have an increasingly marginal weight with the possibility of continuing to be supplied through gas pipelines that arrive from Norwegian and Maghreb fields, and of buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) that arrives by ship from different countries.
In addition, for Russia, the alternative of the Chinese market is limited because importers there have been actively contracting LNG in such a way that, according to the IEA, "there is no room" for "another large-scale gas pipeline from Russia."
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Economics