- The US Administration bases its analysis on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
 |
| US President Joe Biden. |
The United States believes that Russia's economy will not recover from the war until 2030
The United States predicted this Friday that the Russian economy will not recover until at least 2030 to the level before the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, and urged the international community to work together to deal with the interruptions in the supply chains.
The chief economist of the State Department, Emily Blanchard, specified in a press conference that even then it is estimated that Russian GDP will be 20% lower than it could have been had the war not broken out.
The US administration bases its analysis on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other forecasts from the private sector but admits that making calculations is complicated because since the conflict broke out, Russian institutions have "quickly" withdrawn data or have stopped registering them.
The Russian economy is in recession, as it contracted 4.1% in the second quarter and 4% in the third, after growing 3.5% in the first three months of the year.
The Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Andrei Belousov, predicted on November 18 a contraction of the national economy for 2023 of around 2.8%.
Blanchard pointed out that the difficulty Russia is experiencing in importing essential goods due to international sanctions is only going to worsen its situation.
The country's exodus of highly-skilled workers is also expected to have a tangible negative effect on its economy, in key sectors such as telecommunications, engineering, finance, and scientific research.
The flight of private capital, necessary for investments and the development of the country, adds negatively to the equation, which in turn has affected the global economy through its impact on food and energy prices, and in Supply Chain.
The economist also agreed that the cap on the price of Russian oil of 60 dollars a barrel agreed upon by the countries of the European Union (EU) is "the best." The community bloc reached an agreement on Friday to set a ceiling as part of the reprisals against Moscow agreed with the G7 for the war against Ukraine.
This political agreement guarantees that, if the market price falls below 60 dollars a barrel, the ceiling will be updated in such a way that it is at least 5% below what it has in the market and is designed to reinforce the effect of the sanctions against the Kremlin.
Tags:
Politics