- Russia has already defeated Napoleon and the Nazis in the midst of frigid temperatures, but now the situation is different.

A man on a destroyed Russian tank in Buzova, near Kyiv.

Putin entrusts 'General Winter' with his options to repair the troops taking advantage of the cold that will flood trenches and muddy roads

The war in Ukraine, which is already over eight months, is facing its first winter. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion but did so having let the coldest months pass. Now that is unavoidable and the parties are preparing for what may be the toughest weeks since the start of hostilities. The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues but slows down, and Putin is obsessed with bolstering his troops while losing ground even in those territories he has illegally annexed.

Over the weeks, the Kremlin has intensified the launch of missiles and the use of drones, avoiding stepping on the ground. On the other side, Ukraine is responding with more timid advances while trying to protect its energy infrastructure: staying in the dark would mean losing a battle, and Putin has now focused his strategy precisely on reducing the supply of the invaded to a minimum. December is just around the corner and with it a winter that could change the course of the war or even decant it.

Colonel Manuel Morato, Defense Attaché for Russia and Ukraine in Moscow between 2004 and 2008, tells 20minutes that "winter was known to arrive, and we have all prepared ourselves, including the Ukrainians. They know that they are going to cut off their energy, they're already doing it. If we talk about what the military conflict is, he continues, "now we are not in an approach phase with battle tanks or a clash in the open field." The positions are already established: "Russia in Donbas and Ukraine attacking from positions that do not require large movements of wheeled material or armored or motorized vehicles. What I think there may be are artillery fire, aviation, and the rockets that Russia they form an army in themselves".

Obviously the weather always influences, but I don't think this time in a decisive way. Civilians are prepared

"Obviously the weather always influences, but I don't think this time in a decisive way. Civilians are prepared, but they will be affected by the power outages we see," assumes the colonel, who rules out resorting to what has happened in other conflicts. . "It is completely different from the historical references. Right now the Russian troops in Ukraine are in areas prepared to advance defensively. In the case of Napoleon or the Nazis, it was different because they were advancing into Russian territory and they had huge logistical problems that Ukraine in principle would not have".

So would the winter months be the right time for a ceasefire? Morato does not think so. "The only impasse could occur if the West accepts the Russian proposal to negotiate a peaceful solution with the mediation of the Pope. If that option is not supported by the United States, this will continue and there is no reason to think that there will be a pause", he maintains. It should be remembered that Volodimir Zelenski recently assured that he would not negotiate with Putin's Russia and that Moscow believes that the war is over when the US wants. Thus, the colonel anticipates a possible move: "Russia, once the formation of the new soldiers and the new deployment in Belarus, it could launch a major attack.

But the past is always there. "Winter was a general that already sank Napoleon and Hitler. The arrival of winter will stop all maneuvers, because the trenches will fill with water, as well as the moats, and there will be a problem of moving material through the mud", recalls Division General Jesús Argumosa. "What winter will do is stop operations and create a war of attrition. The terrain, which is already beginning to freeze, will slow down movements. Who is going to handle it better? It will depend on who has the best equipment," he continues.

Of course, at the same time that it warns that this scenario "may allow Russia to recover because it has a significant material problem in its production since much of its material is fed with Western technology." The conclusion for the coming months seems clear: "We are going to see a war of static positions."

The massive [Russian] bombing campaign is going to continue through the winter, which could be a turning point

For his part, Pablo del Amo, coordinator of Deciphering the War, maintains that winter may have an influence "but more because of the moment in which the conflict is found than because of the season itself." And it is that Ukraine is advancing although "it has already lost that impetus that we saw because it does not have enough strength either", and in addition "the Russian reservists who join the front arrive". Beyond that, "the massive bombing campaign will continue through the winter, which could be a turning point."

"Theoretically, the cold and winter would play in Russia's favor because Ukraine has used the forests to advance, and with winter they will need to use the roads more, so they would be more exposed to Russian attacks," continues del Amo. In this sense, "one of Moscow's objectives has been to attack the Ukrainian energy infrastructure to, on the one hand, destroy the economy of Kyiv" and on the other "on a moral level because if they are very cold they may have less will to fight".

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