- NATO speaks of a "war of attrition", Putin focuses on Donbas and Kyiv turns its offensive towards Crimea.
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| Russian Army main battle tanks. |
Russia and Ukraine change their plans: this could be the new military strategies of Putin and Zelensky for a long war
"A War of Attrition". That is the summary of six months after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. NATO assumes it, Kyiv adapts to it, and a Kremlin is preparing for this scenario, which does not accept it openly but simply seeks to wear down Ukrainian spirits and overwhelm Western patience. But that the war goes on for a long time implies almost constant modifications in the strategies of one side and the other.
What began as a large-scale Moscow operation has been focusing on very specific areas prone to Russian domination, such as Donbas. Ukraine, on the other hand, looks towards Crimea: the beginning and the end according to Zelensky. But that end is not near.
Russia will seek total control of the Donbas
Russia is moving from the first ambition to take Kyiv in its initial plan to focus its efforts on eastern Ukraine, without much progress in recent weeks. Zaporizhia and Kherson have become the center of hostilities while, for example, Odesa, a fundamental enclave in the conflict, seems to have receded into the background: the grain export agreement makes the port of departure 'untouchable' by the moment, while Turkey and the UN monitor compliance with the pact.
Álvaro de Argüelles, an analyst at El Orden Mundial specializing in geopolitics, explains to 20minutes (a Spanish news website) that "the feeling is that now Moscow's objective is to consolidate control of the territories it has already taken, for example through a referendum and in general to wait for how it evolves the situation in the winter months, especially to see if Western support for Ukraine decreases over time.
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The Russian army "is already having supply problems and it is clear that it feels the wear and tear of the war. And it is also running out of fighters." Putin is trying to supply this "mainly through the Wagner group, which is recruiting in disadvantaged areas of Russia and also with the prison population and with recruits in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions." Of course, the analyst points out that Ukraine "obviously also notices the wear and tear, no matter how much Western aid is favoring it."
For his part, Pablo del Amo, coordinator of Deciphering the War, adds that Russia now seeks to "conquer the Donetsk oblast, but it is an area that is highly fortified because it is the center of the clashes in 2014." Moscow, therefore, "is going very slowly." Their strategy is to launch all the artillery, "but they don't want there to be many casualties." The analyst warns of speculation, such as the fact that the Kremlin "is preparing a more relevant movement for the fall", although it is the moment in which the terrain "may be more insurmountable".
"Right now in the Kharkiv area there is a lot of bombing," he continues. "That may be because they are preparing a large-scale attack on Kharkiv in the coming months, and it is a key point in the conflict." Del Amo maintains that the war "is at an impasse and each side wants to reverse the situation on the battlefield. The war will continue for a long time" as shown "with the aid packages that the United States is approving for Ukraine without going further".
Ukraine, a counteroffensive and the focus on Crimea
Ukraine tries to rearm. The fact that the invasion is taking place over time gives Kyiv's troops room to respond to Russia's movements. Crimea has become a priority, but not only: sustaining the stakes in the east also seems decisive if Zelensky wants (and repeats ad nauseam that he believes he can) win the war. There is no diplomatic channel and the Ukrainian government sets a condition to sit at the table: the total withdrawal of the Russian army. But that, today, is an absolute chimera.
For Del Amo, "Ukraine's strategy is based on continuing to stress its Western allies so that they continue to send support because its objective is to win the war, recover the occupied territories, including Crimea", although he frames this story "more in war propaganda than a realistic goal". Kyiv "is attacking Russian supply lines" and is also "focusing more on Crimea" because propagandistically "it is important". It is something "very symbolic to generate a positive narrative."
Beyond this, another Ukrainian objective is to "resist in the Donbas area", although they also launch "small offensives in Kherson, although without much relevance". Del Amo believes that Ukraine, according to its high command, Ukraine is also seeking "an important counteroffensive precisely in the south to separate Crimea from the unoccupied zone, to remove the corridor that Russia had made there." The question is whether Ukraine has the means for this: "I am not very convinced, although there are analysts who say otherwise." Del Amo reiterates, however, that in the east "the Ukrainian key is to resist" and emphasizes that "one thing is the military part and another is the political part."
In the words of Argüelles, Kyiv is "attacking some Russian points" and is forcing Moscow to bring troops "to the front line, thus slowing down its advance." The conflict navigates, coinciding with Del Amo, "between what military logic dictates and what political logic dictates." Kyiv could gain the ability to attack Crimea and losing this territory "would be a big defeat for Russia." Argüelles does not see that there will be "a great offensive as such", but that Kyiv's goal is to "put the Russians in such an uncomfortable situation that they are the ones who are forced to withdraw, as was seen in the north of Ukraine a few months ago."
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