- The still prime minister accelerated the agreements to get rid of the Russian dependency, which was quite high.
- The passage through the polls could leave Giorgia Meloni as prime minister and will prioritize the national key.
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| Pedro Sanchez and Mario Draghi. |
Italy as an alternative to MidCat? Draghi's pacts with Algeria and Azerbaijan and the elections complicate Sánchez's plan B
If not for France, it will be for Italy. Pedro Sánchez has activated his plan b in the face of Paris's refusal to finish the MidCat gas pipeline to link the Iberian Peninsula with the rest of the EU. The Elysee, as has been the case for the last three years, is not for the work despite pressure from both Moncloa and Germany, which sees this route as part of the solution to get rid of Russian gas. Macron turns a deaf ear and the Spanish alternative is to look toward Rome. But the issue is tricky because several components come together. Mario Draghi has one month left in the Palazzo Chigi, he already closed energy deals months ago and the results of the September 25 elections could lead to an Italy that only thinks of itself.
Draghi, out but with recently signed agreements
"I renew to my friend Draghi our proposal to Italy to be one of Europe's suppliers of solar and electrical energy," Algerian President Abdemadjid Tebboune assured in mid-July. At that time, the Italian prime minister was already walking a tightrope. But the deep government crisis that ended with his fall did not prevent him from closing an agreement with the North African country to increase gas supply. Italy is the southern European country most dependent on Russian gas, but in the words of the former ECB president, that link "will end in 2024."
Those pacts of the Italian Government also included Azerbaijan, with whom the EU closed a large-scale agreement. "Last year, about 40% of our gas imports came from Russia. Today, the average is about half," said Draghi himself, who wants to say goodbye to power, leaving Italy in a less compromised position than the one it had at the start of the Russian invasion. The fact that elections are just around the corner leaves any contact with Rome in a kind of deadlock.
There is also a coincidence that while Algeria becomes Italy's main energy supplier, Algiers' relations with Spain are going through their most delicate moment after the turn of the Sánchez government on the Sahara issue. Mario Draghi has not commented on the words of his Spanish counterpart regarding the gas pipeline, but he has developed parallel agreements that complicate a firm step. In any case, the scenario is unstable.
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Elections put Italy in a deadlock
And it is because Italy is in electoral mode. During the next month, the campaign will mark the entire agenda and despite the fact that the energy crisis will be a relevant issue, no progress will be made in terms of agreements. However, the radical right-wing coalition formed by Fratelli D'Italia, Lega, and Forza Italia defends the country's recovery of nuclear energy and is committed to energy independence. In addition, in the case of Giorgia Meloni, it is clear that putting a cap on the price of gas is already urgent.
The confrontation at the political level is taking place between two very clear blocs: the one on the right, with Meloni, Salvini, and Berlusconi, and the center-left one headed by former Prime Minister Enrico Letta along with other reference names such as Roberto Speranza, until now Minister of Health and highly valued by the public after his management during the Covid pandemic, and also Luigi di Maio. Letta is precisely looking for a confrontation between Russia, represented by the figures of Salvini and Berlusconi, close to Putin, and Europeanism, which is championed by the progressive coalition. Of course, there is a third pole in which the M5S is now owned by Conte, and the duo formed by Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi.
All of them assume the delicate situation with energy and Calenda has even gone so far as to request that the campaign be suspended, since, he said, Italy is "facing a national emergency." The focus is on the measures and steps that Italy must take in the short and medium term, but they have not begun to talk about agreements with other countries. Spain, at that point, loses prominence as a way out against dependence on Russia.
A result that will mark the future
The polls predict a very large majority on the radical right. The Italian electoral system penalizes those who appear alone and rewards coalitions. The left walks more divided, but the ultra bloc aspires to sweep almost all the electoral colleges. Meloni, who wants to be prime minister, prioritizes the national key. The former leader of the youth of the Italian Social Movement (MSI), direct heir to Mussolini's legacy, vindicates the motto of "God, country, and family" and is very critical of the EU, over which he prefers a "Europe of sovereign nations". In this way, bilateral agreements - such as the energy agreement with Spain - could be complicated.
In summary, Draghi himself assured that Italy and Europe are facing "an extremely complex moment", of enormous uncertainty derived from the war in Ukraine, the rise in energy and food prices, and the impact of this inflation on homes and businesses. Also the tensions in Asia, the slowdown in world growth that penalizes exports and the deterioration of access to credit will reduce investments.
"Especially in times of crisis, the government's action must be swift, convinced," he said, citing among the most immediate challenges facing the energy crisis and guaranteeing "Italy's leadership in the world, within the European Union and the bond transatlantic". That leadership, yes, may be conditioned to the results next September 25.
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