- Turkey mediates to bring Zelensky to the negotiating table and Kyiv focuses on wearing down Moscow.
 |
| A Ukrainian soldier near the front lines in the Zaporizhia region of Ukraine. |
From the risk of nuclear disaster to Erdogan's attempt to sit Zelensky down: the war in Ukraine enters an 'impasse'
When almost six months have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the conflict seems to have entered a kind of stalemate while all parties assume that it will drag on over time. But that does not mean that there are still many open fronts, both from a military and diplomatic point of view. Strategies, messages, and requests are crossed... and the return of summer could mark a turning point in the distribution of forces. Ukraine moves in Donbas and Crimea to wear down Russia; Moscow tries to rearm and tightens in areas like Kherson, and meanwhile, Turkey mediates so that Zelensky sits down to negotiate.
On the first point, Kyiv wants to undermine the opponent's capabilities and openly acknowledges this, in the words of the government's senior adviser, Mijailo Polodiak. Putin's roadmap has been changing over the weeks and the Donbas has long been the main target. Crimea is what it already has; this is what you now want to achieve. And Kyiv says ready to respond.
They are not just words, but also facts have been given. For example, nine Russian planes, according to satellite images, were destroyed in explosions at a military airfield; In addition, Kyiv attacked an arsenal with fuel and ammunition, an attack that forced the evacuation of thousands of people from the illegally annexed island. And it is precisely the axis of that annexation, the Crimean bridge, which was also destroyed by Zelensky's troops. Three out of three for Kyiv plans. "Our strategy is to destroy logistics, supply lines, ammunition depots, and other military infrastructure. This causes chaos in the Russian ranks," Polodiak said. On the other hand, Kherson and Zaporizhia are the regions that are now suffering from all the Russian artillery and the most relevant of the clashes.
And is that Zaporizhia is the main nuclear power plant in Europe, with what that entails. It is now under Russian control but Ukraine is not giving it up. Meanwhile, the shadow of a possible nuclear disaster hangs over all heads and both the Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres, and other international leaders, from the High Representative of the EU, Josep Borrell, to Recep Tayyip Erdogan who wants to position Turkey in the key role: that of the mediator. The Ottoman president does not hide it either, and so he openly told Zelensky at their meeting this week.
Erdogan showed himself, after his visit to Kyiv - where he met Guterres - convinced that the conflict "will be resolved at the negotiating table." He speaks from a position as delicate as it is lonely for Turkey since just a few days ago he also met with Vladimir Putin. In this way, the president of a country that is at the same time a member of NATO and one of the few that has not applied sanctions against Russia called for the international community to assume more of a leading role in the face of an already entrenched conflict and " greater responsibility for the reactivation of the diplomatic process".
"Turkey is on the side of Ukraine"
In this sense, Erdogan defended Turkey's role since the beginning of the invasion: "We have sent 98 humanitarian aid trucks to meet the urgent needs of the Ukrainian people. We have temporarily housed almost 325,000 Ukrainians." Of course, he stressed his intention to keep the communication channel open with the Kremlin in search of a solution. But at the same time, he was emphatic, more than ever, in his words: "Turkey is on the side of Ukraine." The Ottoman tightrope walk remains.
Time passes and the room for maneuver is getting smaller. The political agenda is paralyzed, but beyond that, the sanctions on Russia have been slowed down in recent months. The US, Canada, and the UK have only expanded the existing ones, but there is not much room for more packages, as Joe Biden himself acknowledged. For its part, the European Union, after seven sets of measures and finding itself unable to block the purchase of gas, has now engaged in a debate to prohibit the issuance of visas to Russian tourists.
The melon opened recently, is far from consensus. The staunchest supporters of this measure are the Nordic countries, some of which have already taken the effective step. And it is that Brussels leaves the ball in the court of the Member States and there are some governments such as German that have already shown their opposition to this type of restriction. "Tourism in Europe is not a right," replied Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. September will pass judgment on this issue.
As it can also do from the energy point of view. Spain wants to finish the MidCat to become the savior in part of the Union in this sense but above all of a Germany that is already in an emergency situation. France, the other key player in the project, refuses to work on it. Of course, Spain is the country in Europe with the most gas storage capacity and also with the most regasification capacity (the gas arrives in ships in a liquid state and is gasified in the plants). It has seven plants for this, to which we must add another in Portugal. In total, 35% of the gas storage capacity of the EU (and the United Kingdom). The Iberian Peninsula is now an energy island, but improving interconnections with the rest of the Union could be a decisive step towards gaining independence and finally looking Putin in the face. Time passes, and Russia continues to invade Ukraine, and the gap, in many ways, is still open. And it seems far from sewing.
Tags:
Politics