- The leaders assume that the war will be long and seek a loophole for diplomacy as the clashes continue.
- Zelenski demands more war material and more powerful sanctions from his allies to corner the Putin regime.
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| Two Ukrainian soldiers patrol the deserted streets of Donetsk. / STR |
The 100 series focuses on a group of young people who have to survive a post-apocalyptic scenario. The Earth was devastated and the protagonists return to it from a fictional planet, after almost a hundred years without our planet knowing the human walk. But it's all fiction. On the other hand, Ukraine celebrates 100 days of cruel reality, that of war. That of an invasion led by Vladimir Putin that has become a chronic conflict in the east of the country while the West calibrates the options before a scenario that lasts forever.
From February 24 until now, and after failing Russia's initial ambitious plan to take Kyiv, the war has been tilting until it is consolidated in the east. Donbas was already swampy ground since 2014, and hostilities have been constant in recent years despite not having as much media focus. The whiting that bites its tail. Precisely that Donetsk and Luhansk have become the epicenter of the battle does not bode well for the future. The most pessimistic voices warn: "The war could last for months or even years", repeated by analysts to political leaders.
According to British intelligence, the main obstacle to the advance of Russian troops in Donbas is now the Severski Donets River, which the Russians already tried to cross unsuccessfully in early May. The scheme that Putin seems to be running now is to strengthen his control over the entire Lugansk region and transfer forces to neighboring Donetsk. There the imminence of the Russian offensive begins to be noticed. But Ukraine resists. 100 days ago, Putin seemed to be clear that the Ukrainian citizens would welcome the Russian troops to applause, but he has found the opposite: a fierce wall, eager for survival and victory. That is the story that President Volodimir Zelensky handles while regions like Severodonetsk, in Lugansk, refuse to fall into Russian hands.
Zelensky does not think about surrendering. He says that he has not done so at any time, and he relies on Western weapons to fill the war pantry because the winter can be very long. Kyiv already handles figures that give a good account of what is happening: 20% of Ukraine is controlled by Russian troops, which in absolute terms is equivalent to 125,000 square kilometers, while another 300,000, says the president, "are mined." Meanwhile, the number of refugees exceeds 6.5 million people, according to UNHCR calculations. "Russia has shown that its cruelty is much greater," says the Ukrainian government, which wants neither pity nor good words... but weapons. "We need more weapons for Ukraine, modern weapons that will ensure the superiority of our state against Russia in this war," Zelensky snapped.
20% of Ukraine is controlled by Russian troops, which in absolute terms is equivalent to 125,000 square kilometers
And that is the West. Weapons shipments by the United States have been constant, including missiles that, according to the White House, Ukraine has promised not to use on Russian territory. In this sense, the EU has broken an important taboo and for the first time has sent war material to a country in a common way. The value of the weapons sent to Kyiv already amounts to 2,000 million euros, and the High Representative, Josep Borrell, does not rule out that it will continue to increase as long as the conflict is not reversed. "It is only part of the European efforts to help Ukraine defend itself," they expressed from Brussels, which also takes into account all the economic support and in terms of institutional support, given that the European Commission is studying Ukraine's request to accession to the Union. The first step would be to grant it the status of a candidate country, but the last word belongs to the 27, following a favorable report from the Community Executive.
All options are open because the leaders assume that the war will be long and prepare for all scenarios. This is the reason why some heads of state and government want to leave a space open for diplomacy and to continue talking with Vladimir Putin. Joe Biden cannot approach that telephone line for strategic reasons, but in the EU there is a group of leaders who advocate keeping it off the hook. Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Mario Draghi, and Pedro Sánchez assume that this door cannot be closed. And the President of the Spanish Government was clear on the reasons: "When the peace talks take place, Europe has to be sitting at the table". They do not think the same about the Baltics, who are reluctant to talk to the Kremlin until they see concessions from Moscow.
The diplomatic channel languishes and Europe rearms
But the truth is that the diplomatic channel today, a hundred nights after the first Russian attacks on Ukraine, does not even exist. Turkey has so far been the country that has made the most efforts to mediate, also because it plays an important role at the geopolitical level, but, despite the meetings that took place in March, there has been no further progress. The parties' focus on the battlefield and the contacts (between Macron and Scholz and Putin, for example) have only served to highlight the enormous differences and to share the blame. Nor has the UN been able to become a relevant asset in this regard, despite the meetings of its Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, both with the Russian leader and with Zelensky.
Turkey has so far been the country that has made the most efforts to mediate, also for playing an important role at the geopolitical level.
The consequences of the conflict are economic, human, social, geopolitical, and also of mentality. In this change of philosophy, a European Union that has been lazy until now on defense issues is being immersed, but at this point, it has to seek to rearm itself, more out of obligation than mere desire. At the last European Council, the leaders called for a joint strategy not only for arms purchases but also for the development of the industry. And they spoke of "urgency" and of a fund that would allow this step to be taken on firm ground.
Sanctions are, yes, the great pressure tool of the West against Putin. The United States and the United Kingdom have been the most drastic while the European Union's approach is more gradual: for now, the 27 have already agreed to veto both Russian coal and oil, while presenting plans to reduce energy dependence. Gas, yes, is taboo. Poland, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands have suffered supply cuts but have prepared the ground for this scenario. After six packages of sanctions, the Union already speaks only of implementing those agreed upon before going deeper.
But countries are also acting on their own. Finland and Sweden represent the change of era with their request to join NATO, currently vetoed by Turkey but more than likely in the short term. Likewise, Denmark has chosen to join the common European defense policy of which it renounced being a part in 1992 and Germany has consolidated its post-Merkel turn by shielding defense investment in the Constitution and creating a buffer of 100,000 million euros. The Atlantic Alliance, for its part, has been revived and the Madrid summit next June will surely be the one that sponsors the beginning (or rather the continuation) of the new era.
The damage is noticeable and will be noticed. There is no longer conflict that does not change the global panorama in every way and the food crisis that is coming is another link that the countries will have to be able to agree on. According to data compiled by the United Nations, since the war broke out in Ukraine, food has become more expensive by 17%. Cereals such as wheat or corn are now 20.5% more expensive and vegetable oils have risen 28%.
The problem is that it rains wet. These price hikes, which at any stage in recent history would have been a brutal shock, come at a time when food was already more expensive than almost ever in decades. Now, buying food is more expensive than it was after the 1970s oil crisis or the Great Recession, the last two major global food shocks in human history. The reality, perhaps, ends up surpassing fiction.