- The study shows the need to implement adaptation strategies for climate resilience.
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| Africa is affected by climate change. / Pixabay |
Climate change is a factor influencing the possibility of armed conflicts in Africa and their duration. This is revealed by a study carried out by a team from the INGENIO Institute (Innovation and Knowledge Management Institute), a joint center of the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC) and the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV), together with the University of Rome and the University of Urbino Carlo Bo.
The research work was based on data from the African continent from 1990 to 2016 and in it, it was evaluated whether certain climatic phenomena, in combination with the socioeconomic characteristics of the studied areas, affect the probability of a conflict occurring and, if this is the case, to its duration.
To do this, the researchers applied a mathematical model of negative binomial regression and were able to conclude that a prolonged increase in temperatures and rainfall generates a growth, between four and five times, in the probability of conflicts beyond the affected area, in specifically in towns located within a radius of about 550 kilometers.
The study also reported that food shortages, as a result of droughts, increase the possibility of a conflict breaking out in Africa, mainly if the lack of water persists for at least three years, while excessive rainfall triggers these violent events but in a very short period of time.
Recommendations for the problem
Davide Consoli, a researcher at the INGENIO Institute and one of the authors of the study, pointed out that these results have important implications for territorial policies on the African continent.
"For example, changes in climatic conditions influence the probability of conflicts in large areas, which implies that the design of climate adaptation policies must take into account the particularities of each territory", he pointed out.
Similarly, the team from INGENIO, the University of Rome, and the University of Urbino call for the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies designed jointly with measures that favor peacekeeping, especially in areas that are more vulnerable to conflicts arise.
“These measures are essential in the design and implementation of adaptation strategies for climate resilience. In fact, poorly designed adaptation interventions can aggravate existing inequalities and increase the risk of conflict”, concluded Consoli.